What the “hoarding” reaction to the end of the Black Sea grain deal could mean for Africa.
Ukraine has responded to Russia’s exit from the grain deal by also warning Russia-bound cargo ships of being possible targets for Ukrainian fire. Russia had earlier given the same warnings to Ukraine-bound vessels.
This essentially means the supply of grain to the world market is going to be reduced drastically. World food prices are going to shoot up–bad for Africa.
When President Putin met leaders from seven African countries in mid-July 2023, he argued that the deal that allowed grain to be carried out of the Bosporus to the rest of the world had not benefited Africa. According to him, foods were diverted to other parts of the world.
And so what?
Even though Africa may not have received what it was “expected” to receive in terms of total tonnage, what Putin missed was the fact that the deal generally helped keep the global prices of food under control. This relatively benefited Africa.
The current collapse of the agreement and how countries are reacting to it, present a major challenge to African economies some of which are facing economic troubles.
What?
While the announcement of the end of the agreement and the issuance of threats from both belligerents have had food prices already “reacting”, the fact that some countries have started announcing food export bans will further exacerbate the problem—especially for Africa.
India, a major rice producer, has placed export limitations on the commodity in reaction to the Black Sea tensions. The world’s most populous country is taking steps to ensure its food security in a tumultuous period.
This is inimical to Nigeria—Africa’s most populous state that has declared an emergency on food security—and other economies on the continent. Yes, global food prices are likely to shoot up.
Even some African countries have reacted by implementing “protectionist” policies of their own. The Republic of Guinea has suspended the export of some staples. The military junta has instructed that rice, potatoes and other staples remain in the country for the time being.
This means that African countries that have achieved positive food production may not be willing to share with those that heavily rely on imports.
Way forward?
As I have always argued, African states must give priority to food production in their respective agriculture sectors. The use of available factors of production to overwhelmingly produce non-food cash crops has not been helpful.
Also, smallholder farmers need to be supported as the main food providers. In the meantime, continental and regional organisations must encourage intra-African food trade.
Below:map showing the levels of dependence of African states on wheat from Ukraine and Russia.
by Fidel Amakye Owusu